The Atlanta Falcons are 0–2. The Green Bay Packers are 1–1. On paper, this looks like a game Green Bay should control.
But Thursday night’s matchup at Lambeau Field could be much more complicated.
The biggest reason is Michael Penix Jr..
After missing the first two games of the season, Penix is finally back under center for Atlanta. This will be his first NFL start since suffering a season-ending ACL injury last November, and his return comes at exactly the moment the Falcons desperately need their offense to wake up.
Atlanta has been unable to reach the red zone through its first two games. The Falcons opened the season with losses to Pittsburgh and Carolina, including a brutal 34–3 defeat against the Panthers. Their quarterback situation has been unstable, and the offense has struggled to create anything consistently.
Now Penix gets the job back.
And that changes this game.
Penix Doesn’t Have to Be Perfect — He Just Has to Be Better
That might sound like a low bar, but it is an important one.
The Falcons’ offense has been almost impossible to evaluate because their quarterback situation has been so unsettled. Cooper Rush started the first two games and threw four interceptions before being replaced during Atlanta’s loss to Carolina. Rookie Jack Strand also saw action against the Panthers.
Penix gives Atlanta something it hasn’t really had yet this season: continuity.
He has been practicing for several weeks, and Atlanta deliberately waited before putting him back into game action. The Falcons announced that he would start Thursday after initially keeping the decision quiet.
The question isn’t whether Penix will immediately look like a superstar.
The question is whether he can make the Falcons’ offense functional.
That is a much more realistic target.
If Penix can consistently find Drake London, get Kyle Pitts involved and force Green Bay’s defense to respect the passing game, suddenly Bijan Robinson becomes even more dangerous.
And that could be where this game gets interesting.
Jordan Love Has the Bigger Advantage — But Green Bay Is Banged Up
On the other side is Jordan Love, who enters the game with considerably more recent momentum.
Love has already thrown for 532 yards, four touchdowns and one interception through two games. Green Bay also comes into Thursday night after beating the New York Jets 20–17 in overtime.
But the Packers aren’t exactly entering this game at full strength.
Their offensive line has taken a serious hit.
Green Bay has ruled out guard Aaron Banks and tackle Zach Bako-Bewele, while receiver Jayden Reed is also out. Defensive tackles Javon Hargrave and Anthony Campbell were listed as questionable.
That matters because Love needs time.
The Packers struggled offensively against the Jets, and Love finished that game with only 145 passing yards. Green Bay’s running game also failed to provide much support.
So while Love has the advantage in experience and recent production, the Falcons have an opportunity to attack the exact area that could make Green Bay uncomfortable: the offensive line.
If Atlanta can pressure Love early, this game could look completely different.
The Real Battle: Love vs. Penix
This is the matchup that makes Thursday night worth watching.
Love is the established starter trying to push Green Bay deeper into the NFC playoff picture.
Penix is trying to restart his career after a devastating injury and prove that Atlanta’s decision to draft him eighth overall in 2024 was justified.
Their situations are completely different.
Love already knows this offense. He knows the pressure that comes with being Green Bay’s quarterback. He has playoff experience and has already shown that he can produce when the offense is functioning.
Penix is still trying to establish himself.
But Penix has something Love doesn’t have in this particular matchup: desperation.
Atlanta cannot afford to keep playing quarterback musical chairs.
The Falcons need to know what they have in Penix.
And Penix needs to show them.
Bijan Robinson Could Decide How Much Pressure Penix Faces
Don’t make the mistake of thinking this game is only about the quarterbacks.
Bijan Robinson could be the player who determines everything.
Robinson has rushed for 155 yards on 37 carries through Atlanta’s first two games, while also contributing in the passing game. He is clearly one of the most important pieces of the Falcons’ offense.
That makes Green Bay’s run defense extremely important.
If the Packers stop Robinson early, Atlanta will eventually have to ask Penix to carry the offense.
That’s a dangerous situation for a quarterback returning from a major injury.
But if Robinson starts breaking off runs and Atlanta stays ahead of the chains, Penix won’t need to throw 40 times.
He can settle into the game.
And that’s exactly what Atlanta needs.
The Packers Have Their Own Question to Answer
There is an interesting storyline hiding on Green Bay’s side.
Everyone is talking about Penix returning.
But what happens if Green Bay’s offense continues to struggle?
The Packers were expected to be one of the more competitive teams in the NFC, yet their offense hasn’t consistently looked explosive.
Love has produced respectable numbers overall, but the Packers cannot depend on him throwing 40 times every week.
They need the running game.
They need their offensive line healthy.
And they need their receivers to create separation.
With Reed out and multiple offensive linemen unavailable, Green Bay could find itself asking Love to do more than the coaching staff originally planned.
That’s where this matchup could become a test of patience.
If Love starts forcing throws because the running game isn’t working, Atlanta could stay alive.
If Green Bay protects him and lets him work through the Falcons’ defense, the Packers should eventually find opportunities.
My Prediction: Packers 24, Falcons 20
I’m taking Green Bay here, but I don’t think this is going to be an easy Packers victory.
The biggest reason is simple: Atlanta is getting its starting quarterback back.
Penix doesn’t need to throw for 350 yards.
He doesn’t need three touchdowns.
He simply needs to give the Falcons competent quarterback play and keep them within striking distance.
I expect Green Bay to have the better overall offense, especially with Love having more continuity and experience in this system.
But Atlanta’s best chance is to make this an ugly game.
Run through Robinson.
Protect Penix.
Make Love drive the entire field.
Force Green Bay to deal with its offensive-line injuries.
If Atlanta can do those things, the Falcons have a legitimate chance of turning Thursday night into a much closer game than people expect.
Still, I’m going with the Packers to pull it out late.
Packers 24, Falcons 20.
This Game Could Tell Us More About Penix Than Atlanta’s Record Does
Even if Atlanta loses, Thursday night could be an important turning point.
Penix is finally getting a real opportunity to show what this Falcons offense can look like with him running it.
That makes the game bigger than the 0–2 versus 1–1 record suggests.
For Green Bay, meanwhile, this is a game they should want to win convincingly.
They are at home.
They have their starting quarterback.
And they are facing a winless Atlanta team coming off a 31-point loss.
If the Packers allow Penix to immediately revive the Falcons’ offense, questions about Green Bay’s own consistency are going to get louder.
And that’s why I think the most interesting storyline isn’t simply Packers vs. Falcons.
It’s Jordan Love vs. Michael Penix Jr. — one quarterback trying to prove he belongs among the NFC’s top names, and another trying to prove he still has a future worth betting on.
Thursday night could give us the first real clue about both.
