The New York Yankees were already running out of time.
Now they have another problem.
The Yankees entered Friday five games behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League East with only 10 regular-season games remaining. Tampa Bay has put together an 8-2 stretch over its last 10 games, while New York has gone 7-3 during the same period.
Normally, a five-game deficit with 10 games left would already make the division race extremely difficult.
But the Yankees had something they were hoping would change the equation:
Aaron Judge was back.
Unfortunately for New York, that comeback has now been interrupted again.
Judge is being placed on the 10-day injured list with a right calf strain after playing just seven games since returning from a right rib stress fracture that kept him out for roughly three months.
And suddenly, the Yankees’ AL East problem looks much bigger than simply being five games behind Tampa Bay.
The Rays Have Taken Control
Let’s start with Tampa Bay.
The Rays are 93-59 and have built a five-game lead over New York. Their recent form has been one of the biggest reasons the Yankees haven’t been able to close the gap.
Tampa Bay has won eight of its last 10 games, while the Yankees have also played well but haven’t been able to gain ground because the Rays keep winning.
That’s an important distinction.
It isn’t necessarily that the Yankees have completely collapsed.
They haven’t.
New York is 88-64 and has already secured a postseason berth.
The problem is that Tampa Bay has been better at exactly the wrong time for the Yankees.
The Rays have continued winning while New York has been trying to chase them down.
And now the Yankees have lost their biggest offensive weapon again.
Aaron Judge Was Supposed to Be the October X-Factor
Judge’s return was supposed to change everything.
He had missed 99 days because of a stress fracture in his right rib before returning on September 8.
The Yankees didn’t necessarily need Judge to immediately become the MVP-level hitter they know he can be.
They simply needed him to get healthy, get at-bats and build some rhythm before October.
Instead, his comeback lasted only seven games.
Judge was pulled from Wednesday’s 13-inning loss to Minnesota after experiencing tightness in his lower right leg. He had already missed significant time and was still trying to get his timing back at the plate.
Now the calf strain has forced another trip to the injured list.
That is a brutal development with the playoffs approaching.
And There Is Another Problem: Timing
This isn’t happening in May.
This isn’t happening in June.
There are only 10 games left.
That makes the situation much more complicated.
Even if Judge’s calf heals quickly enough for him to return around the end of the regular season, there isn’t much time left for him to rebuild his timing.
And that’s important because Judge had already struggled in his brief return.
He is batting .241/.360/.511 with 18 home runs and 41 RBIs in 66 games this season.
Those numbers aren’t representative of the version of Judge Yankees fans are accustomed to seeing.
But after missing three months, some rust was understandable.
The Yankees needed those final games to get him comfortable again.
Now those opportunities are disappearing.
The Yankees Don’t Need to Win the Division to Make October
This is where things get interesting.
New York has already clinched a postseason spot.
So technically, the Yankees don’t have to chase Tampa Bay at all costs.
They can focus on getting healthy and preparing for October.
ESPN’s current playoff picture has the Yankees positioned for a Wild Card Series against Boston, while Tampa Bay sits on top of the American League East.
That creates a very different question for the Yankees.
Should they continue chasing the Rays?
Or should they start thinking bigger?
Because winning the division would obviously give New York a better position.
But if the price is rushing Judge back before he’s physically ready, the Yankees have to consider whether that is worth it.
October is the real prize.
This Is Where the Yankees’ Depth Gets Tested
For months, the Yankees have had to survive without Judge.
They managed to remain in the postseason picture and maintain the top AL Wild Card position despite his lengthy absence. MLB noted earlier in September that New York was still holding the top Wild Card spot while chasing Tampa Bay.
That tells us something important.
The Yankees aren’t a one-player team.
But Judge isn’t just another player.
He’s the type of hitter who changes how an opposing manager approaches an entire lineup.
Pitchers can’t simply attack the hitters around him the same way when Judge is sitting in the middle of the order.
His presence creates protection.
His power changes pitch selection.
And his reputation creates pressure even when he isn’t hitting.
That’s what New York loses when he’s unavailable.
But There Is a Reason for Yankees Fans to Stay Calm
Here’s the part that shouldn’t get lost in all of this.
The Yankees are still 88-64.
They have a +136 run differential, which is significantly better than Tampa Bay’s +80.
That’s important.
It suggests that the Yankees have been a very strong team over the full season even though Tampa Bay has done a better job winning games consistently in the division race.
New York also has serious postseason pitching options.
Cam Schlittler has emerged with a 1.95 ERA, while Gerrit Cole and Max Fried give the Yankees additional high-level rotation experience.
That could matter more in October than the final standings.
A playoff series is not 162 games.
A team can have a better regular season and still lose a short series.
So the Yankees aren’t suddenly finished because Judge is going back to the IL.
But they are unquestionably more vulnerable.
The Rays Have Given New York a Problem
There is also something else worth acknowledging.
The Rays deserve credit.
It would be easy to make this entire story about the Yankees’ injuries, but Tampa Bay has earned its position.
The Rays are 93-59, have won eight of their last 10 and have maintained their lead despite the Yankees playing respectable baseball themselves.
This isn’t simply New York throwing away the division.
Tampa Bay has been extremely consistent.
And that consistency is why the Yankees are now five games behind with only 10 opportunities left.
So What Happens Now?
I don’t think the Yankees should panic.
But I do think the priority has changed.
Before Judge’s latest injury, New York could reasonably think:
“Let’s chase Tampa Bay.”
Now the conversation should probably be:
“Let’s make sure we’re healthy for October.”
If Judge can return healthy and get some meaningful at-bats before the postseason, the Yankees’ ceiling changes dramatically.
If he isn’t ready, New York will have to find another way to produce against postseason pitching.
That’s the biggest question.
Not whether the Yankees can make the playoffs.
They already have.
The question is whether they can enter October with enough offense to make a serious run.
My Prediction
I’m not expecting the Yankees to catch Tampa Bay for the AL East.
Five games with only 10 games remaining is a massive mountain, especially with Judge now heading back to the injured list.
Instead, I think New York’s biggest battle is going to be getting its roster healthy and ready for the Wild Card round.
And here’s the interesting part:
I wouldn’t write the Yankees off just yet.
If Judge returns healthy, the Yankees’ pitching performs at its best and the rest of the lineup continues producing, they can still be a dangerous postseason team.
But if Judge’s calf becomes a longer-term problem, the Yankees’ margin for error becomes much smaller.
The Rays have spent months building a division lead.
The Yankees now have to decide whether chasing that lead is worth risking the bigger goal.
Because October is coming.
And right now, Aaron Judge’s health may matter more to the Yankees than winning the AL East.
The Yankees aren’t out of anything. But the road to October just became a lot more complicated.
