The Milwaukee Brewers have already made history.
After sweeping the Baltimore Orioles, Milwaukee reached 98 wins, setting a new franchise record with six regular-season games still remaining. The Brewers are also sitting two games ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the best record in the National League.
Normally, that would be enough to make a team look almost unbeatable.
But Tuesday night’s matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies brings a completely different challenge.
The Brewers are taking their 98-win record into Citizens Bank Park to face an 86-win Phillies team that is still fighting for its postseason position. And Philadelphia has one major weapon waiting for them:
Zack Wheeler.
Wheeler enters the game at 13-5 with a 2.99 ERA and 177 strikeouts. Even more concerning for Milwaukee, he has allowed only three earned runs over his last 26 innings.
Milwaukee will counter with Dustin May, who enters at 7-9 with a 4.61 ERA.
So this isn’t simply another late-season baseball game.
It could be a preview of the kind of problem Milwaukee will face when October arrives.
Milwaukee Has Been Winning Without Needing One Superstar
The easiest thing to do would be to look at the pitching matchup and say Philadelphia has the advantage.
Wheeler has been excellent.
May has been inconsistent.
But baseball isn’t decided by the starting pitchers alone.
That’s one of the reasons Milwaukee has been so dangerous this season.
The Brewers have built their record through balance.
They have scored 802 runs, while their pitching staff has posted a 3.54 ERA. Milwaukee is also batting .258 as a team, compared with Philadelphia’s .241.
That balance has allowed the Brewers to win games in different ways.
They can score.
They can pitch.
They can play small-ball.
They can win close games.
And they have shown they can win on the road.
Milwaukee is 46-32 away from home this season, which becomes important because Tuesday’s game is being played in Philadelphia.
The Brewers aren’t walking into an unfamiliar situation.
They’ve been doing this all season.
Then Zack Wheeler Walks Onto the Mound
This is where things get interesting.
Wheeler isn’t just another good pitcher.
He’s exactly the type of pitcher a team wants available during October.
His 2.99 ERA ranks among the strongest marks on either side of this matchup, and his recent run has been even better.
Over his last four starts, Wheeler has allowed only three earned runs over 26 innings.
That’s a 1.04 ERA during that stretch.
His most recent outing was seven scoreless innings against Washington.
That creates a problem for Milwaukee.
The Brewers have spent most of the year beating teams with their overall depth.
But what happens when the opposing starter simply refuses to give them anything?
That’s the test Tuesday night.
Milwaukee doesn’t need to destroy Wheeler.
It needs to make him work.
Long at-bats, deep counts and forcing Philadelphia to use its bullpen earlier than planned could become just as important as getting extra-base hits.
If Wheeler is still cruising through seven innings, however, Philadelphia could have the game exactly where it wants it.
Dustin May Has a Much Bigger Job Than Wheeler
The pitching comparison is pretty straightforward.
Wheeler has a 2.99 ERA.
May has a 4.61 ERA.
Wheeler has 177 strikeouts.
May has 137.
Wheeler has thrown 150.1 innings.
May has thrown 140.2.
On paper, Philadelphia has the clear advantage on the mound.
But May doesn’t necessarily need to match Wheeler.
He simply needs to keep Milwaukee in the game.
That’s because the Brewers have already shown they can win with unconventional pitching arrangements.
In Sunday’s 3-0 victory over Baltimore, Jacob Misiorowski threw three scoreless innings before six Milwaukee relievers combined to preserve the shutout.
That is the Brewers’ formula.
They don’t necessarily need one pitcher to dominate from the first inning to the ninth.
They need enough outs from enough good pitchers.
And if May can give Milwaukee five solid innings, the equation changes considerably.
Jackson Chourio Is Another Problem Philadelphia Has to Solve
There is also something else that makes Milwaukee dangerous.
The Brewers aren’t simply relying on veterans to carry them into October.
They have young players who are already making history.
Jackson Chourio became the first player in MLB history to record three seasons with at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases before turning 23.
That’s a ridiculous combination of power and speed.
And it matters against a pitcher like Wheeler.
You don’t necessarily have to beat Wheeler with one massive swing.
A single.
A stolen base.
A ground-ball double.
A sacrifice fly.
Suddenly the pitcher is working from the stretch.
Suddenly the defense has to make a play.
Suddenly one mistake can change the entire inning.
Chourio gives Milwaukee another way to create that pressure.
Philadelphia Has Its Own Reason to Take This Seriously
The Phillies aren’t playing meaningless September baseball.
At 86-70, they are still trying to strengthen their postseason position. Philadelphia enters this series after splitting its previous four games, including a 7-2 win over the Mets in its most recent game.
And this is the opening game of a three-game series.
That makes Tuesday especially interesting.
Philadelphia can put its best starter on the mound against the best team in the National League.
If Wheeler dominates, the Phillies can send a message.
If Milwaukee wins anyway, suddenly the Brewers look even more difficult to deal with.
That’s why this matchup feels bigger than the standings suggest.
Brewers vs. Phillies: Who Has the Better Formula?
This is where I would compare the two teams.
Philadelphia’s advantage: starting pitching.
Wheeler gives the Phillies the type of ace who can completely change a playoff game.
Milwaukee’s advantage: balance.
The Brewers don’t need everything to go right in one particular area.
Their offense has been productive, their pitching staff has been excellent and their road record is strong.
Philadelphia’s advantage: home field.
Citizens Bank Park can create a very different atmosphere from what Milwaukee has experienced during its recent road games.
Milwaukee’s advantage: consistency.
The Brewers have already won 98 games.
That’s not a hot streak.
That’s six months of sustained production.
And that’s why this game is so fascinating.
Philadelphia may have the better individual starting pitcher.
Milwaukee may have the better overall team profile.
My Prediction: Wheeler Makes It Close, But Milwaukee Finds a Way
I’m not going to ignore the pitching matchup.
Wheeler has been outstanding.
May has struggled more.
Philadelphia is also playing at home.
So if this game comes down to the starting pitchers alone, the Phillies have a strong case.
But I don’t think it will.
Milwaukee’s entire season has been built around finding different ways to win.
That’s why I’m taking the Brewers in a close one.
SportsLoud Prediction: Brewers 4, Phillies 3
I expect Wheeler to give Philadelphia a strong start.
I also expect Milwaukee to struggle to score early.
But the Brewers’ offense eventually gets into the Philadelphia bullpen, and that’s where I think this game changes.
The key could be the sixth through eighth innings.
If Milwaukee is within one or two runs at that point, I wouldn’t count them out.
And if Chourio gets on base?
Watch out.
One stolen base could completely change the inning.
The Real Test Isn’t Tonight — It’s October
Here’s the part that makes this game more important than another number in the standings.
Milwaukee already has 98 wins.
It already owns the franchise record.
It already has the NL Central secured.
The Brewers have accomplished almost everything they could have asked for during the regular season.
But October doesn’t care about 98 wins.
The postseason is where teams are forced to deal with elite starting pitchers, tighter games and fewer opportunities to recover from mistakes.
That’s why Zack Wheeler is such an interesting opponent.
He represents the type of pitcher Milwaukee could see when the games become much more important.
If the Brewers can beat Wheeler, it won’t suddenly guarantee them a championship.
But it would provide another piece of evidence that their balanced formula can work against elite opposition.
And if Wheeler dominates?
That doesn’t mean Milwaukee is exposed either.
It simply gives the Brewers something to think about before October.
Because when the postseason begins, they aren’t going to face ordinary pitching every night.
They’re going to face pitchers like Zack Wheeler.
And that is why Brewers vs. Phillies might be one of the most interesting games on Tuesday’s MLB schedule.
Milwaukee already has 98 wins.
Now we get to see whether those 98 wins have prepared them for the kind of baseball that really matters.
