The New York Yankees are almost where they expected to be when the 2026 season began.
October is getting closer.
The problem is that simply getting there isn’t enough.
After Sunday’s 2–0 win over the Mets, the Yankees moved to 86–63 and closer to securing a postseason berth. They have also won 18 of their last 26 games, while rookie right-hander Cam Schlittler continues to look like one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball.
But here’s the question Yankees fans should be asking:
Can this team actually win October?
Because those are two completely different questions.
Making the playoffs is one thing.
Surviving three rounds against the American League’s best is something else entirely.
And right now, I have the Yankees ranked No. 2 among the American League contenders.
Yes, No. 2.
But I’m still not convinced they have enough pitching to win the World Series.
My AL Power Rankings
If the postseason started today, here’s how I would rank the American League contenders:
1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. New York Yankees
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Houston Astros
5. Boston Red Sox
6. Cleveland Guardians
That ranking isn’t simply based on record.
I’m looking at pitching, lineup depth, recent form, postseason reliability and which teams I would actually trust in a seven-game series.
And that’s where the Yankees become fascinating.
No. 1 — Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are the team I trust most right now.
Tampa Bay owns the American League’s best record at 90–59 and leads the Yankees by four games in the AL East. The Rays also just swept Houston, finishing the series with an emphatic 14–4 victory.
That’s not a team limping toward October.
That’s a team playing like it wants the No. 1 seed.
The Rays don’t necessarily have the biggest superstar lineup in the league, but they have been incredibly difficult to beat over a 162-game season.
And that’s exactly why I have them ahead of New York.
The Yankees may have more star power.
The Rays currently have the better overall balance.
No. 2 — New York Yankees
This is where things get interesting.
The Yankees have arguably the most dangerous offense on this list when everybody is healthy.
Aaron Judge is back.
Ben Rice has become a serious power threat.
Cody Bellinger provides another left-handed bat.
And the Yankees have enough offensive firepower to change a playoff game with one swing.
But October isn’t won with home runs alone.
Eventually, somebody has to take the ball.
And that brings us to Cam Schlittler.
Cam Schlittler Might Be the Yankees’ Biggest Advantage
If you’re looking for one reason to believe the Yankees can actually make a deep run, this is it.
Schlittler just threw six innings of one-hit baseball against the Mets, striking out eight and lowering his ERA to an American League-best 1.949.
He’s now 14–6 and has established himself as one of the most dominant pitchers in the league.
That’s not normal rookie production.
It’s the kind of pitching performance that can completely change a postseason series.
And here’s the scary part for the rest of the American League:
Schlittler isn’t simply pitching well.
He’s becoming the type of pitcher a manager can confidently hand the ball to when the season is on the line.
MLB has even highlighted his AL MVP case, which tells you how unusual his season has been.
If Schlittler is truly this good, the Yankees have their potential October ace.
But they need more.
Carlos Rodón Could Be the X-Factor
Rodón’s return could be just as important as Schlittler’s emergence.
He recently delivered one of his strongest performances of the season, throwing 6⅓ innings while allowing only two runs, one earned, and striking out eight against the Mets.
That matters because the Yankees don’t need Rodón to become a Cy Young candidate.
They need him to be reliable.
If New York can enter a playoff series with Schlittler and Rodón both pitching like this, the Yankees suddenly become much more dangerous.
But there is still a problem.
The Yankees’ Biggest Weakness Is Their Pitching Depth
This is where I hesitate to put New York No. 1.
The Yankees have had major injury issues with their rotation this season, including Max Fried spending time on the injured list with an elbow-related issue.
That creates a difficult October question:
Who do the Yankees trust if they need a third starter?
In a regular season, depth problems can be hidden.
A 162-game schedule gives you time to recover.
October doesn’t.
If a playoff series comes down to Games 4, 5, 6 and 7, every weak spot becomes obvious.
And the Yankees’ bullpen could also become a concern.
Their relief corps has been heavily used, with Brent Headrick leading MLB in appearances and Paul Blackburn ranking among the league leaders in relief innings. David Bednar has also been heavily relied upon as the closer.
That’s a dangerous balancing act.
You want your best relievers available in October.
But you don’t want to exhaust them before October arrives.
No. 3 — Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are one of the more interesting teams in this postseason picture.
They’ve been good enough to earn a top position in the AL, and the current playoff picture has them positioned for a first-round bye.
That’s important.
A bye means avoiding the Wild Card round and potentially saving your pitching staff.
And in October, that can be enormous.
I’m still not completely sold on Chicago as the American League favorite, but I wouldn’t want to underestimate them in a short series.
No. 4 — Houston Astros
Normally, I’d have Houston higher.
But that sweep by Tampa Bay changed things.
The Astros were just demolished by the Rays, including the 14–4 finale. Houston now holds only a one-game lead over Texas in the AL West with 12 games remaining.
The Astros still have experience.
They still have Yordan Alvarez.
And they still know how to play postseason baseball.
But their recent form is concerning.
That’s why I’ve moved them down.
No. 5 — Boston Red Sox
Boston is dangerous because they can score.
They’ve been one of the more productive offensive teams in the American League, and their road record makes them particularly interesting in a postseason environment.
But I don’t trust their pitching enough to put them above the Yankees.
In a one-game or three-game situation, Boston can absolutely beat anybody.
Over multiple playoff rounds?
I’m not convinced.
No. 6 — Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland is the team I wouldn’t want to face if I were overlooking them.
They’re still fighting in a tightly packed postseason race, and their pitching staff and bullpen can make games uncomfortable.
But compared with Tampa Bay and New York, I don’t think Cleveland has enough offensive firepower to consistently win a deep playoff run.
They’re dangerous.
They’re just not my favorite.
So, Can the Yankees Actually Win October?
Yes.
But I’m not picking them to win the American League yet.
And here’s why.
The Yankees have something that most teams would love to have:
elite star power + an emerging ace + playoff experience.
But they also have something that can destroy a postseason run:
uncertainty beyond their top pitchers.
That’s why everything could come down to Schlittler.
If he pitches like a true ace, Rodón stays healthy and the bullpen reaches October without being completely worn down, New York could absolutely reach the ALCS — and possibly the World Series.
If Schlittler struggles?
The Yankees suddenly become much more vulnerable.
My Prediction
If I had to pick the American League today, I’m taking:
AL East winner: Tampa Bay Rays
Wild Card team: New York Yankees
ALCS matchup: Rays vs. Yankees
And here’s where I make the controversial prediction:
The Rays beat the Yankees in the ALCS.
Why?
Because I trust Tampa Bay’s overall roster construction slightly more.
But I wouldn’t be surprised if New York proves me wrong.
In fact, the Yankees might be the one team Tampa Bay would most like to avoid.
New York has too much power.
Too much experience.
And now it has Cam Schlittler.
The Verdict
The Yankees are almost in October.
But that shouldn’t be the celebration.
The real question starts now.
Are they built to win October?
I think they’re close.
Very close.
But right now, I trust Tampa Bay more.
The Yankees have the offense.
They have Aaron Judge.
They have a potential ace in Schlittler.
They have a returning Rodón.
And they have enough postseason experience to make another deep run.
What they don’t have yet is the pitching depth that makes me comfortable calling them the American League favorite.
So don’t celebrate the playoff berth just yet.
The Yankees’ real season starts when October arrives.
And if Cam Schlittler is as good in October as he’s been in September, New York could make me regret putting anybody ahead of them.
